دانلود Probabilistic power flow for distribution networks with photovoltaic generators

Abstract

Based on Monte  Carlo technique, this paper develops a  probabilistic  power  flow  (PPF)  algorithm  to  evaluate  the influence  of  photovoltaic  (PV)  generation  uncertainty  on distribution  networks.  Not  only  the  randomness,  but  also  the correlation of PV  power  and  the moments when  PV  generators start and stop producing power in a day are taken into account with  the  presented  method  using  the  theory  of  conditional probability  and  nonparametric  kernel  density  estimation.  The measured power data of photovoltaic generator in Oregon State, USA  and  34  node  distribution  test  network  are  used  to demonstrate  the  application  of  the  presented  method  in  PPF analysis.